November 2015

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There were no changes to the RBA’s cash rate in November. The governor’s statement after the meeting was thought to have re-introduced a mild easing bias and the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy lowered growth and inflation forecasts yet again. Unemployment forecasts were kept steady but Glenn Stevens noted spare capacity in economy was expected to remain for some time. The markets focused on the ‘out-of-cycle’ rate hikes by the four major banks as a de facto monetary tightening but a speech by the governor pointed (RBA chief regarding mortgage rates) that was not an immediate reason to cut rates as it was only taking back some of the margin previously given away by the banks.

The release of the strong October employment figures was immediately followed by cash markets lowering the probability of December rate cut to from 22% to 8%.  At the end of October a rate cut in February had been seen as a certainty and a second rate cut in mid-2016 was a fair bet but after the employment figures the odds of even one rate cut blew out considerably. The month ended with softer than expected capex figures but cash markets barely responded. Cash markets are still factoring in a good chance of a rate cut in 2016 with the chance of a February to April rate cut put at around 40% and a cut between August and November at 68%. It is worth keeping in mind the cash market has exhibited a tendency in the past to dramatically change these probabilities on the strength of one piece of economic news and in mid-October the likelihood of a second rate cut to 1.50% was being priced at an 88% chance. This is reflected best in the chart below.

Over the course of the month there were three changes to cash account rates and they were all reductions. National Australia Bank’s iSaver account rate was reduced its rate by 10bps, RAMS Saver Account’s rate was reduced by 20bps and the ME Bank Online Savings Account rate was reduced by 25bps.

cashrate-nov
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CASH ACCOUNTS

ProductInt p.a.Special Cond
AMP Saver Account2.60%31 days’ notice
AMP Notice Account2.70%
ANZ V2 Plus0.50%1 dep no w/draw mth
ANZ Progress Saver2.71%Min balance $5,000
Arab Bank Online Savings2.30% Up to $500k.
Bankwest Smarter Esaver2.80%Zero w/draw pm up to $500k
BoQ Cash Man Account2.15%Limit 1 w/draw pm
BoQ Bonus Interest Savings2.75%$250k+
CBA NetBank Saver1.85%$200pm dep, $100k lim, 1wd pm
CBA Goal Saver Ac2.80%
CUA eSaver Plus Account2.90%
Heritage Online Saver2.70%$750,000+
ING Savings Accelerator2.75%$150k+
Macquarie CMA1.90%
ME Online Savings2.00%
NAB Isaver1.80%
NAB Reward Saver3.05%1 dep no w/draw mth
Rams Saver Account3.40%$200 pm no withdrawal
Suncorp eOptions1.90%
Usaver2.31%$200 pm up to $200k
Usaver Ultra3.37%Up to $200k +$2k pm dep
Westpac eSaver1.75%
Westpac Reward Saver2.50%dep $50 and no withdrawals
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