| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.70 | 3.69 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.20 | 4.17 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.56 | 0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.02 | 3.96 | 0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.07 | 4.01 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.34 | 4.30 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 9 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly across the curve. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.68%, 66bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased moderately across a slightly flatter curve. The only economic news of note on the day was the release of the minutes of the FOMC’s September meeting.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.67% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.59%, 124bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
