| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.04 | 4.04 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.57 | 4.55 | 0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.90 | 4.89 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.18 | 4.21 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.31 | 4.39 | -0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.50 | 4.58 | -0.08 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 4 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields remained steady while longer-term yields increased modestly. Domestic economic reports of note included the Melbourne Institute October Inflation Gauge and the ANZ-Indeed Job Ads October survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends today. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.915%, 42bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a solid probability of second cut between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across a flatter curve. Economic data of note were limited to September factory order figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.64% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.735%, 110bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
