| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.81 | 3.81 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.23 | 4.25 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.57 | 4.58 | -0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.10 | 4.15 | -0.05 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.16 | 4.18 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.34 | 4.34 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 6 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields remained unchanged while longer-term yields declined modestly. There were no economic reports of note released on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.635%, 70bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring two 25bp cuts and a high probability of a third one between now and next November.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell by declining amounts across a steeper curve. Economic data for the day included November non-farm payroll figures and the University of Michigan’s December consumer sentiment survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.49% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.715%, 87bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
