| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.86 | 3.882 | -0.022 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.508 | 4.531 | -0.023 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 5.096 | 5.11 | -0.014 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.481 | 3.467 | 0.014 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.998 | 4.011 | -0.013 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.644 | 4.6619 | -0.0179 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields dipped modestly on November 27, 2025, in quiet trading amid US holiday closures, as investors parsed stronger-than-expected inflation and capex data while eyeing global Fed bets. The 10-year yield fell two basis points to 4.50%, the 2-year down one to 3.79%, the 5-year down one to 4.05%, and the 15-year down three to 4.79%. This easing reflected a risk-on tone from stable global equities and a weaker USD, with AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6537 late Thursday.
October CPI data released November 26 showed a 3.8% year-on-year rise, exceeding the 3.6% poll, with monthly at 0% versus -0.2% expected. Trimmed mean CPI held at 3.3% year-on-year, weighted median at 3.4%, signaling persistent pressures that recalibrated RBA expectations—no further cuts seen soon after Wednesday’s spike. Q3 capital expenditure jumped 6.4% quarter-on-quarter on November 27, smashing the 0.5% forecast, highlighting robust investment amid economic resilience.
This data tempered bond gains, as traders weighed RBA’s potential for a December hike, per sources preparing markets. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dismissed “Truss moment” risks from spending. Globally, Fed cut probabilities firmed to 85% for December, pressuring the dollar index down 0.8% from November 21 highs, supporting AUD targets at 0.6580 then 0.6630.
UK gilts fell post-budget, with 10-year yield up three basis points as delayed tax hikes to 2029/30 raised growth doubts; BOE December cut odds near 90%. Bloomberg strategists noted skepticism on economic assumptions, potentially capping gilt upside.
In commodities, silver outperformed gold with a structural deficit and solar demand surge—industrial use up to 689.1 million ounces in 2024, solar at 243.7 million—forecasting deficits widening to 501.4 million ounces. Spot silver at $51.33, down from $54.38 high, but up 163% since October 2023 versus gold’s 142%.
Ukraine peace prospects, with Putin open to US bases but details pending, fluctuated oil to $58.65, up 1.21%. OPEC+ likely to pause 2026 hikes at November 30 meeting amid surplus fears, per delegates.
With AU Q3 GDP due December 3 and October trade December 4, bonds may consolidate. Support at 0.6415 for AUD/USD, resistance 0.6580. JPMorgan’s emerging debt inflows forecast and AI capex at $628 billion by 2028 bolster sentiment, though volatility risks from AI spending concerns persist.
Overview of the US Bond Market
US bond markets were shuttered for the Thanksgiving holiday on November 27, 2025, leaving Treasury yields little changed in limited overnight activity as traders positioned for post-holiday flows.
