| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.888 | 3.86 | 0.028 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.533 | 4.508 | 0.025 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 5.115 | 5.096 | 0.019 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.51 | 3.481 | 0.029 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.017 | 3.998 | 0.019 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.6677 | 4.644 | 0.0237 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields ticked higher on November 28, 2025, tracking US moves in subdued trading, as persistent inflation data tempered easing bets while global Fed expectations supported risk assets. The 10-year yield rose two basis points to 4.51%, the 2-year up three to 3.80%, the 5-year up three to 4.05%, the 15-year up two to 4.80%. This followed October CPI at 3.8% year-on-year exceeding 3.6% poll, monthly at 0% vs. -0.2%, trimmed mean 3.3%, weighted median 3.4%, signaling sticky pressures.
Q3 capital expenditure jumped 6.4% quarter-on-quarter, smashing 0.5% forecast, underscoring investment strength amid resilient economy, reducing RBA cut urgency. Sources indicate RBA prepping for possible December hike for yen trajectory consistency. Prime Minister Takaichi dismissed “Truss moment” fears.
Globally, Fed cut odds near 100% for December, swaps pricing full quarter-point, pressuring USD; AUD/USD at 0.6528, eyeing 0.6580 resistance. Silver outperformed gold, up 163% since October 2023 vs. gold’s 142%, with industrial demand at 689.1 million ounces, solar 243.7 million, deficit 501.4 million.
US credit pay down 6%, tariff hits noted. Euro-area inflation steady December 2; China PMIs November 30 lackluster. Upcoming AU Q3 GDP December 3, trade December 4.
Options Group’s Mike Karp on turbulence; Johnson Associates eyes calmer 2026 for credit, mortgages, Treasuries. JPMorgan inflows $40-50 billion emerging debt 2026 on AI capex $628 billion 2028.
Bloomberg strategists question UK budget assumptions; BOE cut 90% December odds. CFTC: asset managers pared longs. Dealers steady auctions.
US Treasury yields edged higher on November 28, 2025, in abbreviated trading following Thanksgiving, as markets digested the CME outage and firming Fed cut bets amid labor data. The 10-year yield rose two basis points to 4.01%, the 2-year up two to 3.49%, the 5-year up three to 3.60%, and the 30-year up two to 4.66%. This modest backup came despite a risk-on equity rally, with Treasuries still posting weekly gains pushing the two-year to 3.5% as swaps boosted easing odds over 2026.
Economic releases shaped views: November consumer confidence fell to 88.7 from revised 95.5, below 93.4 poll, highlighting job concerns; September durable goods rose 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected; initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000 below 225,000 forecast; housing starts at 1.307 million annualized missed 1.32 million. These affirmed softening labor, bolstering December cut probabilities to nearly 100% from last week’s lower levels, with traders eyeing three more by end-2026. Fed’s Miran reiterated large cuts needed, while Hassett’s potential chair role signaled dovishness.
Bond pay forecasts dimmed for credit traders, with Options Group predicting 6% average drop for 2025 US credit sales/trading/research, investment-grade down 6.6%, high-yield 8.6%, amid tariff turbulence. Overall Wall Street pay up 6.7%, with securitized products up 11.2%. Mike Karp noted hits from tariff selloffs despite recovery. High-grade issuance hit $1.73 trillion, up 10%, spurred by AI-related deals like Meta’s $30 billion.
Positioning showed caution: Vanguard S&P 500 ETF inflows at $125 billion year-to-date. Junk bonds via iShares ETF up nearly 1% weekly, reversing sour sentiment. Bloomberg Commodity Index up over 2%, silver at record. Barclays’ Amarpreet Singh cited geopolitical volatility offsetting Russian supply concerns.
UK yields mixed post-budget; euro-area inflation steady ahead of December drop. China PMIs November 30 expected lackluster. US upcoming: ISM PMI December 1 at 49.0, industrial production flat December 3, core PCE 0.22% December 5.
Strategists like Marlborough’s James Athey warn persistent equity downside needs reinforcing narratives amid liquidity. Mizuho’s Jordan Rochester noted new Fed chair complicates strong data trades. Dealers expect steady coupon sizes August-October. CFTC data: asset managers pared longs $23.5 million per bp, leveraged funds reduced shorts.
