Daily

9 July 2025

ClosePrevious CloseChange
Australian 3-year bond (%)3.4553.3940.061
Australian 10-year bond (%)4.3524.2790.073
Australian 30-year bond (%)5.0294.9530.076
United States 2-year bond (%)3.89693.909-0.0121
United States 10-year bond (%)4.40524.417-0.0118
United States 30-year bond (%)4.93164.946-0.0144

Overview of the Australian Bond Market

Australian government bond yields rose modestly, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 4.28%, and the 15-year up 2 basis points to 4.62%, reacting to the RBA’s steady 3.85% rate.

The 2-year yield increased 1 basis point to 3.37%, reflecting short-term adjustments. The RBA’s hold, defying earlier cut expectations, drove the yield uptick. Markets still price four cuts (100 basis points) by mid-2026, though the timeline may shift.

Global yields were stable, with attention on the OBBBA’s fiscal boost and the August 1 tariff deadline. The AUD/USD rose 0.07% to 0.6535, supported by commodity resilience.

 

Overview of the US Bond Market

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.33%, down 1 basis point daily. The 30-year yield held at 4.87%, unchanged daily, as markets digested the OBBBA’s fiscal impact.

The 2-year yield dipped to 3.84%, down 1 basis point, while the 5-year yield fell to 3.91%, down 1 basis point. The yield curve flattened slightly, reflecting cautious optimism amid fiscal stimulus. Market expectations price two Fed cuts by year-end, favoring September, as the August 1 tariff deadline looms.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposal to ease bank capital rules, encouraging Treasury purchases, supported stability. Tomorrow’s market focus will likely shift to trade outcomes.

 

 

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