US headline inflation turns positive

18 November 2015

The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI figures which were largely in line with market expectations. The headline inflation rate came in at 0.2% for the month, reversing September’s -0.2% result as energy prices rose and the USD paused its upward climb. The year-to-date figure was +0.1%, up from September’s comparable figure of 0.0% and in line with market expectations. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, rose 1.9% for the last 12 months, the same as September’s figure of 1.9% and also in line with market expectations. The US 10 year bond rate finished the day lower, down 2bps to 2.25%.

ANZ said the data was “supportive of a December Fed rate hike.” Baillieu Holst took a similar view and said the “less than threatening US inflation numbers” cut back market expectations of a December rate rise but this would not change its own in-house view.

US CPI chart October 2015