US leading index splutters along; points to “fragile” outlook for US economy

18 April 2024

 

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.3% in March, worse than expected; change driven by multiple activity parameters; US Treasury yields rise; rate-cut expectations soften; points to fragile outlook for the U.S. economy; regression analysis implies 0.8% contraction in year to June. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten sub-indices which are thought to be sensitive to changes in the US economy. The...

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