No US recession, just serious headwinds; CB April leading index falls continue

17 May 2024

 

Summary: Conference Board leading index down 0.6% in April, worse than expected; change driven by business conditions, weaker new orders, yield spread, drop in new building permits, stock prices; US Treasury yields rise; rate-cut expectations soften; no longer signalling recession, still points to headwinds for growth ahead; regression analysis implies 0.4% contraction in year to July. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index composed of ten...

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