| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.10 | 4.05 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.39 | 4.32 | 0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.61 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.76 | 4.76 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.40 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.56 | 0.07 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 1 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields moved higher across the curve, lagging the rises of long-term US yields on Friday night. Economic reports included ANZ-Indeed June job ads, the Melbourne Institute June Inflation Gauge and June CoreLogic home prices.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.395% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.305%, 2bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a small probability of a 25bp cut between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields remained stable while longer=term yields rose noticeably. Economic data included the ISM’s June manufacturing PMI and May construction spending figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.375%, 96bps less than the current rate.
