| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.13 | 4.13 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.42 | 4.44 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.73 | 4.76 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.71 | 4.71 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.35 | 4.35 | 0.00 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.52 | 4.52 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 4 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields remained steady while longer-term yields declined, lagging the material falls of US yields on Wednesday night. Economic reports were limited to May goods trade balance figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.395% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.33%, in line with the current cash rate, thus pricing in a zero probability of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US bond markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.305% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.375%, 96bps less than the current rate.
