| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.13 | 4.13 | 0.00 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.41 | 4.42 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.73 | 4.73 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.61 | 4.71 | -0.10 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.28 | 4.35 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.48 | 4.52 | -0.04 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 5 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields remained largely unchanged, pretty much in line with closed US markets on Thursday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.395% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.33%, in line with the current cash rate, thus pricing in a zero probability of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell across the curve, with falls heaviest at the short end. The June non-farm payrolls report was the main event of the day.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.245%, 108bps less than the current rate.
