| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.05 | 0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.35 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.70 | 4.69 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.52 | 4.62 | -0.10 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.21 | 4.29 | -0.08 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.48 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 11 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields mostly moved moderately higher, in contrast with the declines of US Treasury yields on Wednesday night (AEST). The only data release of note was the July reading of the Melbourne Institute inflation expectations.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.39% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.275%, 6bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a material chance of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell significantly across the curve. Data releases included the much-anticipated June CPI figures and weekly initial jobless claims figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a tiny chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.115%, 122bps less than the current rate.
