| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.01 | 4.02 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.33 | 4.33 | 0.00 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.67 | 4.66 | 0.01 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.45 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.23 | 4.19 | 0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.46 | 4.40 | 0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 15 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields slipped a touch while longer-term yields either finished steady or up a little, unlike the falls across the curve of US Treasury yields on Friday night (AEST). There were no data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.375% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.195%, 15bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose a tad while longer-term yields increased more noticeably. Data releases were limited, with the July Fed Empire State Index the only report of note for the day.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.035%, 129bps less than the current rate.
