| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.93 | 4.01 | -0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.26 | 4.33 | -0.07 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.60 | 4.67 | -0.07 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.46 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.16 | 4.23 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.37 | 4.46 | -0.09 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 16 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell noticeably across the curve, in contrast to the upward movements of US Treasury yields on Monday night (AEST). There were no data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.375% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. July 2025 futures imply 4.095%, 24bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a near-certainty of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell by increasing amounts out along the curve. Data releases included June retail sales, July NAHB housing market indices, May business inventories and June import price indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.31% for the month and thus a small chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 3.935%, 139bps less than the current rate.
