| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.64 | 3.63 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.06 | 4.07 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.43 | 4.46 | -0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.02 | 4.05 | -0.03 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.90 | 3.94 | -0.04 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.20 | 4.22 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 12 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields crept higher at the short end of the curve while longer-term yields declined modestly. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.325% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.665%, 67bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts and a solid chance of a third one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately across the curve on a day with no data releases of note.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.16% for the month and thus a 100% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.495%, 183bps less than the current rate.
