| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.54 | 3.49 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.97 | 3.89 | 0.08 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.38 | 4.32 | 0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.67 | 3.65 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.70 | 3.71 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.00 | 4.02 | -0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 9 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose across the curve, in contrast with the downward movements of US Treasury yields on Friday night. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.44%, 90bps below the current cash rate, or three 25bp cuts and a good chance of a fourth one between now and next August.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields rose a little while longer-term yields declined modestly. Data releases were limited to July consumer credit figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.205% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 3.02%, 231bps less than the current rate.
