Summary: Euro-zone industrial production flat in October, in line with expectations; down 1.2% on annual basis; German, French 10-year yields rise; expansion in only one of four largest EU economies.
Following a recession in 2009/2010 and the debt-crisis which flowed from it, euro-zone industrial production recovered and then reached a peak four years later in 2016. Growth rates then fluctuated for two years before beginning a steady and persistent slowdown from the start of 2018. That decline was transformed into a plunge in March and April of 2020 which then took over a year to claw back. Production levels since early 2023 have generally declined.
According to the latest figures released by Eurostat, euro-zone industrial production remained unchanged in October on a seasonally-adjusted and calendar-adjusted basis. The flat result was in line with expectations and up from September’s 1.5% contraction after revisions. On an annual basis, the contraction rate slowed from September’s revised rate of 2.2% to 1.2%.
Long-term German and French sovereign bond yields finished higher on the day. By the close of business, German and French 10-year bond yield had both gained 6bps to 2.25% and 3.05% respectively.
Industrial production expanded in only one of the euro-zone’s four largest economies. Germany’s production contracted by 1.1% over the month while the comparable growth figures for France, Spain and Italy were -0.2%, 1.0% and 0.0% respectively.