The US Commerce Department released the Q3 GDP “second estimate” figures which showed an annualised growth rate of 2.1% (seasonally adjusted), revised up from the 1.5% advanced estimate released at the end of October but in line with market estimates. As such, US 2 year Treasury notes yields edged 1bp lower to 0.93% while US 10 year yields also fell 1bp to 2.24%.
The second estimates are based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimates. ANZ saw the higher revised growth figures coming as disappointing. “…the composition of growth was a little disappointing relative to the advance release. Inventories were revised up (now estimated to have subtracted 0.6% instead of 1.4% originally) while personal consumption growth was nudged down (0.2% to 3.0% q/q), as were net exports. There was a small upward revision to investment growth.”
The Commerce Department calculates the annualised figure by multiplying the quarterly result by four and so a direct comparison with UK or Australian figures is not meaningful. However, if the US GDP growth figures were to be calculated in same way Australia does (that is, q/q and y/y), then the seasonally adjusted US GDP figures would be 0.5% (q/q) and 2.2% (y/y).
