| Name | Daily Close | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 40,608.45 | 2,962.86 | 7.87% |
| S&P 500 | 5,456.90 | 474.13 | 9.52% |
| Nasdaq | 17,124.97 | 1,857.06 | 12.16% |
| VIX | 33.62 | -18.71 | -35.75% |
| Gold | 3,099.50 | 20.1 | 0.65% |
| Oil | 62.92 | 0.57 | 0.91% |
US MARKET
Right. Tariffs paused for 90 days on non-retaliating countries. China sees tariffs ratcheted up to 125% after retaliation. Stocks soar in US trading. Short end of the yield curve soars. Share market records broken. Indiscriminate buying, even Apple and China related ETFs. At the close, the S&P 500 finished up 9.6%%, the Nasdaq 100 12.3%%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 8.1%. The Phila Semi Index +19%.
Some of the intraday moves on the biggest technology stocks in the market set records today in terms of value added. Nvidia’s 17% jump added some $390 billion to its market capitalization, blowing past its previous record, when it added $329 billion in one session in July. Apple’s 13% intraday jump today is the fourth-biggest add ever, at more than $260 billion, with Microsoft’s $220 billion gain not far behind, sixth on the list.
Anyone that thinks the cratering of the bond markets over the last few days did not at least precipitate this announcement would be naïve. There is a golden rule in the financial market – no one gets to stuff with the bond markets. And we are not just talking about the range of more arcane trades that were going heavily awry as from Monday and were no doubt risking investment strategy blow ups. You can’t make unfunded tax cuts if your treasury market is in flux because Trump just gave up on tariffs funding the tax cuts. To make an argument for unfunded tax cuts, well you need a compliant treasury market.
And the USD. We were at the beginning of a repatriation of capital out of the US. Interestingly, the USD did not rally today. Such is the damage that has been done to the US reputation.
Various investment houses have now wound back recession calls. Reflective of calls, Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist stated “I do think that recession risk has been removed now. It looks like now we have a more steady pace of negotiations coming.”
So, where to from here. Well, what today did was cut off the left tail risk – the direst of recession scenarios. It suggests we are past peak tariff uncertainty and from here uncertainty can only dissipate. It shows that the Trump administration is cognisant of the ructions in the share market and, more importantly, the bond market. And if that is the case, then you would think the market will move higher – not off to the races, but three steps forward, two steps back
LOCAL MARKET
What happens on Wall Street certainly doesn’t stay in Wall Street and particularly during periods of economic and financial market dislocation. The S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 135 points, or 1.8%, to 7375. US futures point to more selling on Wall Street, while fears about China sent the Australian dollar below US60¢, iron ore to a fresh seven-month low and oil briefly below $US60 a barrel for the first time since 2021.
All 11 industry groups on the ASX were trading in the red; energy and mining shares tumbled more than 3%. ASX mining giants tracked the weaker iron ore prices, with index bellwether BHP retreating 3.6% and Rio Tinto dropping 4.6%. Champion Iron posted the index’s biggest loss, falling 12.9%. The slump in oil prices dragged oil and gas explorers Woodside and Santos, which were down 3.7% and 5.2%, respectively. Elsewhere, index bellwether CSL slumped 5.4% after Trump said he would shortly announce a “major” tariff on pharmaceuticals
The only real bright spot was the very modest gains in financials, with Commonwealth Bank lifting 0.3% and National Australia Bank by 0.5%.
Meanwhile, in the Australian ETF segment, the industry recorded more than $3 billion in net flows in the month of March– the ninth consecutive month that flows topped $3 billion. However, funds under management fell 2.4% in March to $249.4 billion due to declining share markets and more than offsetting the inflows.