| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.271 | 3.258 | 0.013 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.166 | 4.146 | 0.02 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 4.858 | 4.828 | 0.03 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.725 | 3.75 | -0.025 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.251 | 4.271 | -0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.8081 | 4.824 | -0.0159 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
The Australian bond market experienced modest movements on June 30, 2025. The 10-year yield rose to 4.18%, up by 0.04 percentage points from the previous session. The Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ Yr Index rose by 0.16%, indicating a slight uptick in bond prices.
Short-term yields declined, with three-month bank bills falling by 15 basis points to 3.73%, and six-month bank bills dropping 11 basis points to 3.77%. Government bond yields showed mixed movements; the three-year bonds rose slightly by 1 basis point to 3.33%, while ten-year bonds increased by 9 basis points to 4.26%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious tone surprised markets, despite the expected rate cut. Inflation appears to be stabilizing, and the labor market remains resilient, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. As of late June 2025, market expectations for the RBA cash rate are clearly tilted toward further easing, driven by soft economic data and moderating inflation.
Overview of the US Bond Market
U.S. Treasury yields exhibited mixed movements on June 30, 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.28%, reflecting investor caution ahead of a central bank summit in Portugal, where Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak. Conversely, the 2-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.76%, indicating short-term rate expectations. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined by 0.4%, reaching a three-year low, amid speculation that President Donald Trump may announce a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by October.
