Name | Daily Close | Daily Change | Daily Change (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Dow | 44,494.94 | 400.17 | 0.91% |
S&P 500 | 6,198.01 | -6.94 | -0.11% |
Nasdaq | 20,202.89 | -166.84 | -0.82% |
VIX | 16.83 | 0.1 | 0.60% |
Gold | 3,349.30 | -0.5 | -0.01% |
Oil | 65.51 | 0.06 | 0.09% |
OVERVIEW OF THE US MARKET
Wall Street’s optimism propelled stocks to fresh highs at the start of a promising July, fueled by hopes of stabilizing trade negotiations with key partners and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The S&P 500 edged down 0.11% to 6,198.01, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.82% to 20,202.89, reflecting minor profit-taking after a robust quarter. Despite the slight declines, both indices posted significant year-to-date gains of +4.84% and +5.70%, respectively, marking their best first-half performance since 2021, driven by a surge from April lows.
Technology stocks continued to lead the rally, with companies like Apple Inc. and Oracle Corp. standing out. Apple Inc. advanced after strong iPhone sales data, while Oracle Corp. soared on news of a $30 billion annual cloud-services contract. Major banks also gained traction following the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test approvals, paving the way for increased dividends and buybacks. The market’s resilience came despite a relative calm after a volatile first half, marked by trade war uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and deficit concerns under President Donald Trump’s administration.
With the July 9 trade deadline looming, the European Union is negotiating a deal that might include a 10% tariff on many exports, seeking exemptions, while Trump has hinted at new tariffs on Japan. His economic adviser signaled progress toward finalizing trade deals post-July 4 holiday. Bonds also saw gains, with Treasury yields easing, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested avoiding increased long-term debt sales given current yield levels, anticipating further declines as inflation cools. Goldman Sachs projects a September Federal Reserve rate cut, noting tariff-related inflation impacts are milder than anticipated.
Ahead of the June employment report, due Thursday due to the July 4 holiday, economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect job growth to slow to approximately 110,000 from 139,000 last month, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.3%. This data could further influence market sentiment and rate cut expectations.
The Australian share market closed higher on Tuesday, wrapping up a strong financial year with a solid double-digit gain, buoyed by optimism over potential trade agreements and expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index finished up 34.79 points, or 0.41%, at 8,575.90, while the broader All Ordinaries index rose 36.76 points, or 0.42%, to 8,808.80. The S&P/ASX 300 index also gained 34.49 points, or 0.41%, to 8,508.30.
For the financial year, the ASX 200 achieved a 10.2% gain, or around 14% total return including dividends, marking a resilient performance amid global uncertainties. The index also recorded a 1.92% rise over the past month and a 11.11% increase over the year, reflecting steady growth. Seven of the ASX’s 11 sectors ended higher, with materials and financials leading the charge, while energy and utilities saw modest declines.
Materials surged 1.3%, with BHP climbing 1.9% to $36.75 and Rio Tinto advancing 1.4% to $107.13, driven by a rebound in commodity prices. Financials rose 0.8%, with Commonwealth Bank up 0.3% to $190.71 and Westpac steady at $34.57, supported by expectations of lower interest rates. Health care also performed well, gaining 1.1% as CSL rose 1.5% to $295.50 after positive clinical trial results.
On the downside, energy dipped 0.5% as Woodside fell 1.2% to $24.10 amid oil price volatility. The market’s upward trend was underpinned by hopes of a trade deal with the US ahead of the July 9 deadline, though caution lingered with the RBA’s July 7–8 meeting on the horizon.
The June employment report, due later this week, is forecasted to show job growth easing to around 100,000 from 120,000 last month, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, according to market analysts. This data could further shape expectations for monetary policy adjustments.