| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.455 | 3.394 | 0.061 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.352 | 4.279 | 0.073 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 5.029 | 4.953 | 0.076 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.8969 | 3.909 | -0.0121 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.4052 | 4.417 | -0.0118 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.9316 | 4.946 | -0.0144 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields rose modestly, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 4.28%, and the 15-year up 2 basis points to 4.62%, reacting to the RBA’s steady 3.85% rate.
The 2-year yield increased 1 basis point to 3.37%, reflecting short-term adjustments. The RBA’s hold, defying earlier cut expectations, drove the yield uptick. Markets still price four cuts (100 basis points) by mid-2026, though the timeline may shift.
Global yields were stable, with attention on the OBBBA’s fiscal boost and the August 1 tariff deadline. The AUD/USD rose 0.07% to 0.6535, supported by commodity resilience.
Overview of the US Bond Market
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.33%, down 1 basis point daily. The 30-year yield held at 4.87%, unchanged daily, as markets digested the OBBBA’s fiscal impact.
The 2-year yield dipped to 3.84%, down 1 basis point, while the 5-year yield fell to 3.91%, down 1 basis point. The yield curve flattened slightly, reflecting cautious optimism amid fiscal stimulus. Market expectations price two Fed cuts by year-end, favoring September, as the August 1 tariff deadline looms.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposal to ease bank capital rules, encouraging Treasury purchases, supported stability. Tomorrow’s market focus will likely shift to trade outcomes.
