BOND_18.07.25.csv
| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australian 3-year bond (%) | 3.37 | 3.396 | -0.026 |
| Australian 10-year bond (%) | 4.338 | 4.357 | -0.019 |
| Australian 30-year bond (%) | 5.019 | 5.031 | -0.012 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.867 | 3.905 | -0.038 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.242 | 4.467 | -0.225 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.9885 | 5.0271 | -0.0386 |
Overview of the Australian Bond Market
Australian government bond yields dipped on Friday, July 18, 2025, with the 10-year yield falling 1 basis point to 4.33%, and the 2-year yield dropping 2 basis points to 3.33%, influenced by the week’s soft US data and local market strength. The 15-year yield eased 1 basis point to 4.68%.
The RBA’s hold at 3.85% on July 8-9, paired with yesterday’s weak employment data (unemployment at 4.3%), keeps August rate cut odds at 94%, with 75-100 basis points of cuts over the next year targeting 2.85%-3.10% by mid-2026. Albanese’s China visit supports trade stability, but the AUD’s rise to 0.6502 reflects mixed sentiment.
Overview of the US Bond Market
US Treasury yields edged lower on Friday, July 18, 2025, with the 10-year note down 2 basis points to 4.42%, reflecting a cautious close after a data-rich week, though tempered by tariff risks. The 2-year yield fell 7 basis points to 3.87%, while the 30-year yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.99%, flattening the curve slightly.
This week’s softer core CPI (0.2% month-over-month vs. 0.3% expected) and import price decline to -0.2% year-over-year suggest easing inflation, supporting a September rate cut outlook with two cuts priced by year-end. However, Trump’s tariffs could reignite pressures.
