| Name | Price | Change | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow | 45,514.95 | 114.09 | 0.25% |
| S&P 500 | 6,495.15 | 13.65 | 0.21% |
| Nasdaq | 21,798.70 | 98.31 | 0.45% |
| VIX | 15.11 | -0.07 | -0.46% |
| Gold | 3,671.20 | -6.2 | -0.17% |
| Oil | 62.47 | 0.21 | 0.34% |
OVERVIEW OF THE US MARKET
Wall Street optimism surged as traders bet the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates, pushing U.S. equities near record highs. Investors are increasingly confident that policy easing will support corporate earnings even as the economy shows signs of slowing but avoids tipping into recession.
After a brief slide on weak jobs data, the S&P 500 rebounded strongly. Markets are pricing in nearly three rate cuts this year, starting in September. Treasury yields continued to fall, with the two-year note at its lowest level since 2022, while the dollar weakened.
Fed officials appear to be shifting their focus from inflation risks tied to tariffs toward labor market softness. Stable inflation expectations suggest tariff-driven price pressures may be temporary, even if they linger through the economy for months. Attention now turns to upcoming data: the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to confirm another markdown in job growth, while Thursday’s core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% for a second month.
Despite slowing payroll growth, strategists stress that the labor market does not signal an imminent recession. Analysts at Invesco and Nationwide argue that slowing growth, anchored inflation expectations, and falling yields create a supportive backdrop for equities. Historically, stocks have delivered strong gains in non-recessionary rate-cutting cycles, with the S&P 500 rallying as much as 50% over two years, according to Deutsche Bank.
September, usually a weak month for stocks, could defy seasonal trends. Bloomberg Intelligence notes the S&P 500 has historically gained when the Fed eased policy outside recessions. The key uncertainty now is the pace of future cuts, which will hinge on how stubborn inflation proves. By next week, markets expect a clear signal: either stagflation fears or confirmation of multiple rate cuts by year-end.
OVERVIEW OF THE AUSTRALIAN MARKET
Australian shares edged lower on September 8, 2025, extending the seasonally weak tone of September amid mixed global cues and soft Chinese trade data. The S&P/ASX 200 shed 21.6 points, or 0.24 per cent, to close at 8,849.6, recovering from a session low of around 0.50 per cent down, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 13.6 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 9,126.9. Small ordinaries bucked the trend with a 0.12 per cent gain to 3,639.3, and the All Tech index rose 0.66 per cent to 4,219.0, reflecting pockets of strength in risk assets.
The pullback followed a weaker-than-expected US jobs report on Friday that pressured Wall Street, tempering rate cut hopes and contributing to a 1.8 per cent slip in oil prices to US$65.7 a barrel after an OPEC+ decision to boost output by about 137,000 barrels per day in October. China’s trade figures showed softer-than-anticipated import growth, adding to demand concerns for commodity-heavy sectors. “Some areas of the market have done okay by the prospect of rate cuts, tech in particular, but for the most part we’re a heavily cyclically weighted index and it’s been dragged by Friday’s result,” Capital.com market analyst Kyle Rodda told AAP.
Information technology led gainers with a 1.44 per cent advance to 2,922.8, buoyed by tracking software provider Life360 which rallied 6.1 per cent to $95.35 on no specific news amid a small caps surge, alongside WiseTech Global up 1.9 per cent and Xero adding 1.3 per cent. Health care climbed 0.94 per cent to 39,273.9, highlighted by 4D Medical’s 49.5 per cent surge after announcing agreements to deploy its health software. Emerging companies jumped 1.33 per cent to 2,711.5, with risk-oriented names like Qoria up 9.5 per cent, Droneshield gaining 5.2 per cent, and Tuas rising 7.2 per cent on inclusion in the ASX 200 materials sector.
8 of 11 sectors ended in the red, with energy the weakest at 1.62 per cent lower to 8,987.3 as Woodside fell 2.7 per cent, Santos dropped 1.1 per cent, Beach Energy eased 1.6 per cent, and Karoon Energy declined 1.2 per cent on the oil retreat. Financials slipped 0.60 per cent to 9,566.0, with insurers under pressure from rising bond yields; QBE shed 3.6 per cent, IAG fell 2.1 per cent, and Suncorp faded 2.0 per cent. Commonwealth Bank was the lone big four to rise, up marginally to $168.24, while the others declined between 0.6 and 1.0 per cent. Industrials dipped 0.61 per cent to 8,612.0, consumer discretionary lost 0.51 per cent to 4,533.4 with Super Retail Group tumbling 4.1 per cent to $18.05 after going ex-dividend, and consumer staples eased 0.45 per cent to 12,157.2 as Coles and Woolworths faced potential $1 billion in underpayment penalties following a Federal Court ruling.
Materials held nearly flat at 17,852.3, with Rio Tinto up 0.8 per cent to $118.21 on iron ore futures topping US$105 a tonne, offsetting declines in BHP down 0.6 per cent and Fortescue off 0.3 per cent. Gold miners were mixed as the metal hovered near its all-time high of US$3,600 an ounce, with Northern Star gaining 0.8 per cent to $20.10 while Newmont fell 0.6 per cent and Evolution dropped 1.4 per cent. Lithium names broadly advanced on a 2.7 per cent intraday rally in Chinese lithium carbonate futures to 74,740 yuan a tonne, led by Argosy up 11 per cent, Global Lithium rising 11.4 per cent, Liontown adding 4.3 per cent, Pilbara Minerals climbing 3.7 per cent to its highest since December 2024, and Patriot Battery Metals up 3.7 per cent. Uranium stocks also moved higher, with Lotus gaining 8.1 per cent, Aura Energy up 7.1 per cent, Boss Energy adding 6.0 per cent, Elevate Uranium rising 5.0 per cent, Terra Uranium up 4.8 per cent, and Bannerman Energy advancing 4.6 per cent.
Communication services was nearly flat at 1,886.9 down 0.01 per cent, real estate edged up 0.12 per cent to 4,130.2, and utilities fell 0.30 per cent to 9,847.5. Mayne Pharma was the top loser, plunging 14.7 per cent in response to media reports on South Australian Premier comments regarding a potential takeover. Overall, more than 100 companies are set to go ex-dividend between now and mid-November, which may exert short-term downward pressure on prices but free up liquidity for reinvestment. The Australian dollar strengthened to 65.69 US cents, up 0.18 per cent from 65.33 cents on Friday, buoyed by a softer greenback on US rate cut speculation.
In a light week for local data, Westpac and NAB will release consumer and business confidence surveys on Tuesday, while investors eye US and Chinese inflation and producer price figures later in the week. “Obviously, we’re well out of earnings season now, so it’s mostly going to be a sort of a global story for the market,” Mr Rodda said. The NZX 50 rose 0.43 per cent to 13,281.14, and Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.43 per cent to 43,643.81 at the close.