Total job advertisements rose in August after falling back in July, according to ANZ’s monthly jobs ads survey. The month-on-month figure rose by 1.8%, although the year to August figure moved back to 8.0%, or where it was in June. In response, the 3 year bond yield increased by 1bp to 1.43% while the 10 year bond yield moved up 4bps to 1.91% on the day. The AUD was also a little higher.
The survey’s results produce what economists call a “leading indicator”, or a statistic which gives a strong hint as to the future direction and strength of the economy. In the case of ANZ’s job ads survey, it provides a preview of conditions in the employment market, especially with regards to employer demand for labour. More advertisements generally means more hirings, a stronger economy ahead and thus lower unemployment rates.
After the release of the previous report for July, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, Felicity Emmett had predicted job advertisements would rebound in August on the back of a cut in the official rate and solid business conditions. After the August results she said, “The rise in job ads is consistent with the ongoing strength in business conditions and increasing capacity utilisation reported in the business surveys….Overall, this is consistent with our view that the unemployment rate will slowly improve over the next year, supported by low interest rates and solid business conditions.”
