Total job advertisements rose in October (in seasonally–adjusted terms) after a fall in September, according to ANZ’s monthly job advertisements survey. The month-on-month figure rose by 1.0%, while the year to September figure increased to 5.2%, up from August’s comparable figure of 3.6%.
Domestic bond markets largely ignored the results as offshore bond market yields spiked on news of Hilary Clinton’s clearance by the FBI. The 3 year bond yield increased by 1bp to 1.69% while the 10 year bond yield moved up 2bps to 2.32% on the day. The AUD was up about half a US cent on the day, which is an indication the forex market thinks there is an increased probability of higher future interest rates.
ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, Felicity Emmett expects employment numbers to increase and for economic conditions in general to remain robust. “The rise in ANZ job ads is encouraging and points to ongoing improvement in labour market conditions. It is consistent with the moderate pace of economic growth, as well as above average business and consumer sentiment.”
Labour force figures for October have not yet been released and thus the job advertisements to total employment ratio is not known. The chart below shows the inverse relationship between this ratio and the unemployment rate. As the ratio rises (more advertisements per potential employee) the unemployment rate falls. However, the rate of advertisements per potential employee is still far from pre-GFC levels.
