The loss of full time jobs in Australia came to a halt in October but, unlike recent ABS labour reports in 2016, doubts over its veracity were largely absent. The ABS released October employment estimates which indicated Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%. The total number of people employed in Australia in either full-time or part-time work rose by 9,800 during the month, in contrast with the market’s expectation of +20,000. The participation rate also fell again, this time from 64.5% to 64.4%, largely driven by males leaving the workforce.
While AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver referred to October’s report as being “messy” it was not because of ABS sampling processes. The ABS was at pains to point out how the estimation process was affected in September by an incoming group in Queensland, stating its influence had “been temporarily reduced as part of the estimation process.” One month later, this adjustment has now been reversed because the new group’s characteristics have been stable from month to month. “The ABS has therefore reversed the treatment applied in September, with the rotation group being given its full influence on September estimates.” The adjustment led to revisions in September’s data which meant full-time job losses were larger than reported at the time.
