ANZ’s job advertisement survey is well-known as a leading indicator of employment numbers in Australia. It reflects changes in demand for labour and it provides another measure of activity in the economy. There is also a fairly good inverse relationship between changes in Australia’s unemployment rates and changes in the RBA cash rate. Understanding the path of Australia’s unemployment rate has historically provided a reliable indicator of RBA rate changes.
Figures for August have been released and, after revisions, total advertisements rose by 2.0% to 181,435 (seasonally adjusted), up from July’s comparable figure of 177,879. On a 12 month basis, job advertisements were 13.3% higher, which is an increase from July’s comparable figure of 12.8%.
The inverse relationship between job advertisements and the unemployment rate is quite strong (see below chart). An increasing number of job advertisements as a proportion of the labour force should lead to lower unemployment rates.