ANZ’s job advertisement survey is well-known as a leading indicator of employment numbers in Australia. It reflects changes in demand for labour and it provides another measure of activity in the economy. There is also a fairly good inverse relationship between changes in Australia’s unemployment rates and changes in the RBA cash rate. Understanding the path of Australia’s unemployment rate has historically provided a reliable indicator of RBA rate changes.
March’s figures have been released and, after revisions, total advertisements were essentially unchanged at 177,084 (seasonally adjusted), but up from February’s revised figure of 177,051. On a 12 month basis, total job advertisements grew by 11.5% while February’s comparable growth rate was 13.3%.
Despite only a minor increase in March after a 0.4% fall in February, ANZ Head of Australian Economics David Plank remained positive with regards to future employment growth. “Despite the recent stability in ANZ Job Ads, the labour market remains robust. The level of job ads is consistent with continued strength in employment growth, though we do expect some slowdown in the pace in which jobs are added. Businesses reported record conditions in February and the uptrend in capacity utilisation suggests that the unemployment rate will slowly grind lower through the year.”