ANZ’s job advertisement survey is well-known as a leading indicator of employment numbers in Australia. It reflects changes in demand for labour and it provides another measure of activity in the economy. There is also a fairly good inverse relationship between changes in Australia’s unemployment rates and changes in the RBA cash rate. Understanding the path of Australia’s unemployment rate has historically provided a reliable indicator of RBA rate changes.
September’s figures have been released and, after revisions and seasonal adjustments, total advertisements fell by 0.8% to 175,555. August’s figure was also revised down and it was adjusted from 177,241 to 176,990. On a 12 month basis, total job advertisements grew by 4.7%, a fall from August’s comparable growth rate of 5.1% and well-down on the double-digit growth rates recorded in the first quarter of 2018.
Bond yields finished the day higher but they may have just been following offshore leads from higher US and German yields on Friday night. Yields on 3-year ACGBs were 4bps higher at 2.13% while 10-year and 20-year ACGBs had each increased by 5bps to 2.79% and 3.11% respectively. The Aussie dollar was broadly unchanged.