The RBA held the official cash rate steady at its board meeting in February, as it had for every meeting since the cash rate was reduced to 1.50% in August 2016. Statements from RBA officials in the last two years had indicated the next move was “more likely to be an increase”. However, RBA officials have made statements recently which have put that likelihood into doubt.
The release of the meeting’s minutes was not expected to provide anything particularly new. RBA chief Philip Lowe had already given an update which had provided some excitement in his speech to the National Press Club on the day after the RBA board met. The February Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) had then formalised the downgraded growth forecasts a few days later.
When the minutes were released, they were pretty much as anticipated. The minutes included statements very similar to Lowe’s Press Club speech regarding the importance of movements in the unemployment rate and inflation, as well as a reference to the RBA’s switch to a neutral bias.