US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. After a dramatic drop through December and January, confidence levels then recovered in February. However, an element of volatility has been introduced in recent months.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers have recovered their optimism, at least in the short term. The latest reading came in at 129.2, up from March’s final figure of 124.2, thus reversing most of the 7.2 point fall from the previous month. From a historical perspective, readings around the current level are at well-above average levels.
The consensus expectation prior to the report was for a reading of around 126. Even so, US bond yields still finished the day consistently lower across the curve. 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields all finished 3bps lower at 2.26%, 2.50% and 2.93% respectively.