US consumer confidence collapsed in late 2007 as the US housing bubble burst and the US economy went into recession. By 2016, it had clawed its way back to neutral and then went from strength to strength until late 2018. After a dramatic drop through December and January and a couple of months of volatility, recent index values appear to have stabilised at historically high levels.
The latest Conference Board survey indicates US consumers recovered their elevated sense of optimism which existed before a two-month dip around the new-year period. The latest reading came in at 134.1, up from April’s final figure of 129.2, not far away from this cycle’s peak reading of 137.9. From a historical perspective, May’s reading is in the highest 10%.
Lynn Franco, The Conference Board’s Director of Economic said, “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed.”
