The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index which is composed of ten indices which are thought to be sensitive to changes in the US economy. The Conference Board describes it as an index which attempts to signal peaks and troughs. Turning points in its index have historically occurred prior to changes in aggregate economic activity. Recently, month on month changes in the LEI have produced negative results. However, the latest report has swung in a positive direction.
The Leading Economic Index increased by 0.5% in July, a large increase from June’s comparable figure of -0.1% and more than the expected +0.2%. Even so, the LEI slowed down to 1.8% from June’s rate of 2.0% on an annual basis,
Month-to-month figures produced are volatile but once they are standardised, a clearer relationship with GDP emerges.
