EU consumer confidence plunged during the GFC and again in 2011/12 during the European debt crisis. Since early 2014, it has been at average or above-average levels, rising to a cyclical peak at the beginning of 2018. However, it dropped back significantly in late 2018, albeit to still-elevated levels, at about the same time as doubts emerged over the US economy’s robustness. Since then, it has slowly been recovering in fits and starts.
The October survey conducted by the European Commission indicates household confidence in the European Union has given back all of September’s rise, plus a bit more. The latest published measure of Consumer Confidence index produced a figure of -7.6, indicating households were less confident than in September when the index recorded -6.5. The average reading since the beginning of 1985 has been -11.6.
ANZ FX Strategist John Bromhead said the figures are “a worrying sign” for the EU economy “given recent weakness in manufacturing and trade.”
