The ADP National Employment Report is published monthly by the ADP Research Institute. The report provides an estimate of US non-farm employment in the private sector. Since the report began to be published in 2006, its total private sector non-farm employment figures have exhibited a high correlation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm payroll figures which are typically published a day or two later.
The latest figures indicate private sector employment grew by 125,000 in October, above the expected figure of 116,000. The new figure represent an improvement from September’s increase of 93,000 but only after that month’s increase was revised down by 37,900.
NAB senior economist David de Garis described the result as “a small upside surprise” but he also noted the ADP indicator as having “a mixed track record with forecasting recent payrolls results.”
The report came out on the same day as the September quarter’s GDP figures and on the same day the FOMC cut the federal funds target range by 25bps. US Treasury bond yields moved lower, especially at the long end. By the end of the day, 2-year Treasury bond yields were 4bps lower at 1.60% while 10-year and 30-year yields had each lost 7bps to 1.77% and 2.26% respectively.