US consumer confidence started 2019 at average levels in a longer-term context, although readings were markedly lower than those which had been typical of most of the previous year. Since then, surveys have generally indicated US households maintained historically-high levels of confidence except for two short-lived plunges; one at the very start of the year and one in August.
The latest survey conducted by the University of Michigan indicates the average confidence level of US households has increased for a fourth consecutive month. The University’s preliminary reading from its Index of Consumer Sentiment increased from November’s final figure of 96.8 to 99.2 in December, above the reading of 97.0 which had been expected.
The University’s Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, noted the extended period in which the index had remained at elevated levels. “The Sentiment Index has averaged 97.0 in the past three years, the highest sustained level since the all-time record in the Clinton administration.”
US Treasury yields finished higher on the day, although a component of the increase should be attributed to the stronger-than-expected payrolls report released on the same day. By the close of business, 2-year Treasury yields were 5bps higher at 1.63%, the 10-year yield had gained 3bps to 1.84% and 30-year yields had increased by 2bps to 2.28%.