Summary: Job losses continue to mount through April; some people hold multiple jobs; unemployment rate will rise but not by as much as figures suggest.
The ABS has released its second payroll report containing new statistics on jobs and wages based on Single Touch Payroll data provided by the ATO. Job losses do not directly translate into additional unemployment; some people hold more than one job and the report’s figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Between the week ending 14 March 2020 and the week ending 18 April 2000, the total number of work positions in Australia contracted by 7.5%. Total wages fell by 8.2% over the same five-week period.
The rate of weekly job losses slowed when compared with losses in the week ending 4 April. Total jobs fell by 1.5%, a substantial “improvement” when compared with the 5.5% fall in the week ending 4 April. The arts/entertainment sector continued to suffer heavily.
ANZ senior economist Catherine Birch said the numbers “show a decline in the number of jobs rather than the number of workers, and more than 15% of employed workers are estimated to hold multiple jobs.” She noted other differences between the payroll report and Labour Force statistics which would mean the expected rise in unemployment “will likely be smaller than the payroll figures suggest.”
The figures came out on the same day as the RBA Board meeting and domestic Treasury bond yields moved a little higher, largely following US Treasury bond movements overnight. By the end of the day, 90-day bank bills and the 3-year ACGB yield were both unchanged at 0.10% and 0.24% respectively while the 10-year yield finished 3bps higher at 0.86% and the 20-year yield finished 2bps higher at 1.48%.