Summary: Home loan approvals jump in number and value in August; no Victorian impact; housing “much more resilient” than expected; owner-occupier loan commitments surge again; investor commitments also up strongly; “widening state variations”, lags between application and approval complicating forecasting.
A very clear downtrend was evident in the monthly figures of both the number and value of home loan commitments through late-2017 to mid-2019. Then the RBA reduced its cash rate target in a series of cuts and both the number and value of mortgage approvals began to noticeably increase. Figures from February through to May provided an indication the trend had finished but the last three sets of figures contradict this idea.
August’s housing finance figures have now been released and the total number of loan commitments (excluding refinancing loans) to owner-occupiers jumped by 22.9%. The gain came after a 9.0% rise in July after revisions and, on an annual basis, the rate of growth increased from July’s figure of 7.8% to +34.0%.
“For the August month, finance approvals show no impact whatsoever from Victoria’s ‘second wave’ lockdown that began in the month, the state instead posting a strong 13.9% gain in line with that seen nationally,” said Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan.
