| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.72 | 3.95 | -0.23 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.12 | 4.29 | -0.17 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.51 | 4.63 | -0.12 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.26 | 4.36 | -0.10 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.03 | 4.14 | -0.11 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.31 | 4.40 | -0.09 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 31 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields plunged, with falls at the short end outpacing longer-term yields. Data releases included June quarter CPIs (the main catalyst for the falls), June private credit, June retail sales and June quarter real retail sales.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures implied an average cash rate of 4.33% for the month, thus pricing in no real chance of any change at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.82%, 52bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell significantly across the curve. Data releases were limited to June quarter employment cost indices while the FOMC policy meeting concluded with no change to its target range.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.215% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.81%, 152bps less than the current rate.
