| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.08 | 4.09 | -0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.35 | 4.37 | -0.02 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.68 | 4.70 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.63 | 4.63 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.30 | 4.28 | 0.02 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.49 | 4.47 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 9 July.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell modestly across the curve. Data releases included NAB’s June Business Survey and the Westpac-Melbourne Institute July Consumer Sentiment report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends 6 August. August futures imply an average cash rate of 4.39% for the month, thus pricing some chance of a 25bp rate rise at the meeting. June 2025 futures imply 4.28%, 6bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a modest probability of a 25bp cut (in net terms) between now and next June.
US MARKETS
Long-term US Treasury bond yields rose modestly while short-term yields finished steady. Data releases were limited to the June reading of the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 31 July. August federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.32% for the month and thus a tiny chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. However, June 2025 contracts implied 4.275%, 105bps less than the current rate.
