| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.71 | 3.79 | -0.08 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.15 | 4.21 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.50 | 4.56 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.14 | 4.12 | 0.02 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.22 | 4.19 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.42 | 4.38 | 0.04 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 10 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell noticeably across the curve. Economic reports of note released on the day included NAB’s November Business Survey and the outcome of the RBA Board’s monetary policy meeting.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.265% for the month, thus pricing in a high probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.505%, 83bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring three 25bp cuts and a modest chance of a fourth one between now and next November.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by increasing amounts across a steeper curve for a second consecutive day. Notable economic reports released on the day were limited to the NFIB November Small Business Optimism Index.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.49% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.77%, 81bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
