| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.75 | 3.70 | 0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.23 | 4.20 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.62 | 4.58 | 0.04 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.96 | 4.02 | -0.06 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.06 | 4.07 | -0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.36 | 4.34 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 10 October.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose across a flatter curve. The only domestic economic data of note on the day was the Melbourne Institute’s August inflation expectation report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 5 November. November futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a modest chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. September 2025 futures implied 3.68%, 66bps below the current cash rate, or two 25bp cuts and a good chance of third one between now and next September.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell with the exception of ultra-long yields which rose modestly. Economic data included September CPI figures and weekly initial jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 7 November. November federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.665% for the month and thus a high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. September 2025 contracts implied 3.50%, 133bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
