| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.63 | 3.62 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.07 | 4.08 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.46 | 4.46 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.05 | 4.04 | 0.01 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.94 | 3.99 | -0.05 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.22 | 4.28 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 9 August.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally moved a little each way on Friday, with ultra-long yields finishing unchanged. There were no domestic data releases of note.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.32% for the month, thus pricing in a small chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. July 2025 futures implied 3.65%, 69bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in two 25bp cuts and a solid chance of a third one between now and next July.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased a touch at the short end while longer-term yields fell back. There were no data releases of note.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.16% for the month and thus a 100% probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. July 2025 contracts implied 3.525%, 180bps less than the current rate.
