| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.98 | 3.97 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.34 | 4.31 | 0.03 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.64 | 4.54 | 0.10 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.84 | 4.88 | -0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.40 | 4.47 | -0.07 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.06 |
* Implied yields from June 2024 futures. As at 11 June.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rose modestly with the exception of ultra-long yields which played catch-up from Friday.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 June. June futures imply an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing a near-zero probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. May 2025 futures imply 4.16%, 16bps below the current cash rate, thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut between now and next May.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields fell moderately all along the curve. The NFIB’s May Small Business Optimism Index was the only notable data release.
The next FOMC meeting ends tonight. June federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.33% for the month and thus no chance of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. June 2025 contracts implied 4.515%, 82bps less than the current rate.
