| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.47 | 3.52 | -0.05 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.86 | 3.92 | -0.06 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.27 | 4.33 | -0.06 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.64 | 3.60 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.65 | 3.64 | 0.01 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.97 | 3.97 | 0.00 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 11 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields fell nearly uniformly across the curve. There were no domestic economic reports of note on the day.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.35%, 99bps below the current cash rate, or nearly four 25bp cuts between now and next August.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields generally rose across a flatter curve. The only data release of note on the day were August consumer price indices.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.215% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.99%, 234bps less than the current rate.
