| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.84 | 3.73 | 0.11 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.28 | 4.20 | 0.08 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.63 | 4.54 | 0.09 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.20 | 4.16 | 0.04 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.33 | 4.27 | 0.06 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.55 | 4.48 | 0.07 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 12 December.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields rebounded from the previous day’s noticeable falls across a flatter curve. Economic reports of note released on the day were limited to November Labour Force figures.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 18 February 2025. February futures implied an average cash rate of 4.285% for the month, thus pricing in a solid chance of a 25bp cut at the meeting. November 2025 futures implied 3.605%, 73bps below the current cash rate, thus practically inferring three 25bp cuts between now and next November.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields rose by increasing amounts across a steeper curve for a fourth consecutive day. Notable economic reports released on the day were limited to November PPI figures and weekly jobless claim numbers.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.48% for the month and thus a very high probability of a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. November 2025 contracts implied 3.83%, 75bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
