| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 4.11 | 4.10 | 0.01 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 4.58 | 4.59 | -0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.88 | 4.90 | -0.02 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 4.34 | 4.25 | 0.09 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 4.43 | 4.31 | 0.12 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 4.57 | 4.47 | 0.10 |
* Implied yields from December 2024 futures. As at 12 November.
LOCAL MARKETS
Short-term Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields increased modestly while longer-term yields declined a little. Domestic economic data included the Westpac-Melbourne Institute November consumer sentiment survey and the NAB October business survey.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 10 December. December futures implied an average cash rate of 4.315% for the month, thus pricing in a low probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. October 2025 futures implied 3.96%, 38bps below the current cash rate, thus inferring one 25bp cut and a solid probability of another one between now and next October.
US MARKETS
US Treasury bond yields increased significantly across the curve. Economic reports of note included the NFIB October Small Business Optimism survey and the October Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 December. December federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 4.51% for the month and thus a solid chance of another 25bp rate cut at the meeting. October 2025 contracts implied 3.945%, 64bps less than the current federal funds effective rate.
