| Close | Previous Close | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia 3-year bond* (%) | 3.50 | 3.47 | 0.03 |
| Australia 10-year bond* (%) | 3.81 | 3.86 | 0.01 |
| Australia 20-year bond* (%) | 4.27 | 4.27 | 0.00 |
| United States 2-year bond (%) | 3.64 | 3.64 | 0.00 |
| United States 10-year bond (%) | 3.68 | 3.65 | 0.03 |
| United States 30-year bond (%) | 3.99 | 3.97 | 0.02 |
* Implied yields from September 2024 futures. As at 12 September.
LOCAL MARKETS
Australian Commonwealth Government bond yields generally rose across a flatter curve, with ultra-long yields being the exception as they finished unchanged on the day. The only domestic economic release of note on the day was the Melbourne Institute’s September inflation expectations report.
The next RBA Board meeting ends on 24 September. September futures implied an average cash rate of 4.335% for the month, thus pricing in a near-zero probability of a 25bp cut at the meeting. August 2025 futures implied 3.365%, 97bps below the current cash rate, or nearly four 25bp cuts between now and next August.
US MARKETS
Short-term US Treasury bond yields remained unchanged while longer-term yields rose modestly. Data releases included August producer price indices and weekly initial jobless claim figures.
The next FOMC meeting ends on 18 September. September federal funds futures implied an average cash rate of 5.20% for the month and thus a 100% probability of at least a 25bp rate cut at the meeting. August 2025 contracts implied 2.98%, 235bps less than the current rate.
